Testing of the Seismic Gap Hypothesis in a Model With Realistic Earthquake Statistics
نویسندگان
چکیده
The seismic gap hypothesis states that fault regions where no large earthquake has recently occurred, are more prone than others to host the next earthquake. It can lead idea of immunity after local disaster which, notwithstanding it sounds reasonable, been frequently rejected by objective testing. More generally, estimate occurrence probability big shock on basis time delay from last still represents a challenge. problem is this issue cannot be addressed only historical catalogs which contain too few well documented shocks, and decades future observations appear necessary. On other hand, recent results have shown important insights obtained spatial organization aftershocks its relationship mainshock slip profile. Here, we address monitoring stress evolution together with shocks their in model described as an elastic interface embedded ductile medium. reproduces all relevant statistical features allows us perform accurate testing consequences, particularly side aftershock patterns. We show earthquakes do not regularly repeat time, but possible achieve until percentage occurring inside contour.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal Of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2169-9356', '2169-9313']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jb023542